Tag Archives: Brexit

What do the Tory candidates policies mean for the high street

Gekko Retail Marketing Tech Wearable

In the blizzard of spending splurges promised by the two candidates to be our next Prime Minister has been some announcements that could be very significant for High Street retailers. Boris Johnson, the clear favourite, has announced that he wants to introduce 100% business rate relief on free-to-use ATMs to keep as many as possible open in town and city centres to ensure shoppers can withdraw money. He has declared that he wants to curb the closure of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) that has followed the surge in contactless payments.

While this may appeal to shire Tories of a certain vintage the trouble is the Boris approach is as feasible as owning a unicorn. In a contactless world, less and less people are drawing out cash when you can tap a card or your phone. The subsidies he is proposing would not allow for the cash machine to be free as it still needs to be maintained, filled, connected and bank charges apply which make the model loss making for any operator especially if it is used infrequently. More poppycock from the master of poppycock.

Johnson also talks about wanting ‘a range of bureaucratic and legal barriers to business to be swept away’ to allow high-street shops to flourish. This includes an ‘overhaul of town and country planning laws that mean converting one form of premises ie. a shop, cafe, pub or hot-food takeaway, to another can be a lengthy process’.

One option being considered by Johnson’s team is introducing a new “A” class business category covering shops, financial and professional services, restaurants and cafes. The measure would allow existing shops to easily offer additional services.

He also called for the immediate unlocking of a £675m government fund earmarked for sprucing up high streets around Britain. If he becomes prime minister, he plans to announce this summer the towns that have been successful in bidding for shares of the cash.

Although on paper the overhaul of planning laws looks attractive, the problem is planning laws relating to change of use are not in his power to change, neither will £675m go far and how does he propose to choose which towns are more worthy of the fund? As ever with Johnson’s announcements rhetoric trumps reality.

Meanwhile Jeremy Hunt has pledged to exempt hundreds of thousands of small businesses from business rates if he becomes Prime Minister. Hunt intends to scrap taxes for nine out of 10 high street shops in a bid to save the high street. The claim is the move will save newly exempted businesses up to £6,500 each and will scrap taxes on 24,500 businesses based in Birmingham (5,000), Manchester (8,000), Leeds (6,000), Newcastle (2,000) and Bristol (3,500).

Hunt said that his government would reform the current Retail Discount rate, so that businesses which qualified for the discount would see their entire business rate bill cancelled. At present, those with a ratable value below £51,000 are eligible for their bill to be cut by one third.

Additionally, one of Hunt’s best trailed policy announcements has been a promise to cut corporation tax from 19% to as low as 12.5%, a policy which has been costed at £13bn a year. His generous spending pledges have seen him receive some flak from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

Hunt the self-proclaimed entrepreneur is certainly more progressive in his thinking and his ideas may just work to support independent traders on the high street who are being strangled by inflated taxes. The corporation rate cut will pay for itself making Britain an attractive base and undoubtedly bring more corporates to base themselves in the UK and with a No Deal Brexit in site, more initiatives like this is what the UK needs to survive.

The trouble is according to all the polling, Hunt has little chance of getting in. Just like the rest of us, it seems High Street retailers had better batten down the hatches as Tory Party members take the ultimate gamble in installing Johnson in to Number 10.

To read the full article please visit London Loves Business.

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The Drum – ‘Regrexit’ or not, smart targeting never been more important for retailers

Regrexit blog

As much as I might want to avoid the subject, it is impossible to look at retail predictions for 2019 without looking through the lens of Brexit. As the uncertainty continues over a possible deal, I want to try and think about the effect it will have on retailers in 2019, what is probably concerning them and what if anything we can do to brace ourselves.

I watched the fascinating Channel 4 live debate show, Brexit: What the Nation Really Thinks, which aired in November. Polling and market research agency, Survation interviewed 20,000 people online across the UK from 20 October to 2 November 2018 in the biggest ever independent Brexit opinion poll. If you didn’t see it, according to the poll if the referendum was re-run, there would be a swing toward remain at 53% to 47% – but that’s neither here nor there right now!

What was interesting, with my retail hat on, was how attitudes to the overall economic outlook of the country and people’s personal finances by age group would impact retail strategy planning their 2019. Overall, the study found that 44% think Brexit will be bad for the economy, versus 31% thinking it will be good. This deteriorating consumer confidence is already being played out on the high street where we are seeing a continuing stream of store closures – not just because of Brexit, but certainly not helped by it.

When you start to delve deeper into the demographics there is a clear picture emerging among the different age groups – as the age group increases attitude to Brexit, economic outlook and effect on personal finances get more positive. While 45 year olds and younger now overwhelmingly have a negative view of the economy post-Brexit, for 55-64 year olds it is much tighter (34% think it will be good, versus 40% bad) and for 65-74 year olds it swings to positive (42% think it will be good, versus 35% bad).

A clear majority of consumers aged 54+ also think Brexit will either be good or make no impact to their personal finances. There are two factors behind this. Firstly, they are after all ‘Generation Wealth’, with more assets and financial independence so therefore less likely to feel they will be adversely impacted. Additionally, as a majority wanted to vote leave anyway, they were clearly unimpressed by what they see as ‘project fear’ from the remain side about some of the reported negative financial impacts.

However, for worried millennials a far different picture emerges. Just 24% think Brexit will be good for the economy versus 50% bad. Meanwhile 44% think it will be bad for their finances, against 18% good. Not surprising when you consider their careers started after the financial crash and they are less secure in their jobs.

So, what does this mean for retailers in developing marketing strategy? Insulated from any of the more negative personal financial impact of Brexit and with more confidence in the country’s future could we see the baby boomers create a mini retail boom?

However, for millennials, worried about their personal financial security as well as the economy, retailers will need to entice them to shop. Millennials seek out experiences which also applies to the way they shop. Retailers need to engage with this audience through the customer journey making any purchase a positive experience. What is the USP versus Amazon for this digital, increasingly disenfranchised demographic?

Having a distinct strategy for the different demographics and understanding their mindset, spending power and intention will be key. Also, being agile and flexible and able to react quickly to the market and buying signals. Just as the outcome of the negotiation won’t satisfy all political parties or a now fractured population, neither will a one size fits all retail strategy. Start planning now to remain relevant to your customer base as we move into unpredictable 2019.

To read the full article visit The Drum.

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Predictions: It’s getting personal…

Bexit

Start planning now to remain relevant to your customer base as we move into 2019

Much as I might want to avoid the subject, it is impossible to look at retail predictions for 2019 without looking through the lens of Brexit. As the uncertainty continues over a possible deal, I want to try and think about the effect it will have on retailers in 2019, what is probably concerning them and what, if anything, we can do to brace ourselves.

I watched with interest the Channel 4 live debate show, Brexit: What the Nation Really Thinks, which aired in November. Survation interviewed 20,000 people online across the UK from 20 October to 2 November 2018 in the biggest ever independent Brexit opinion poll, to try to decipher how the country would vote now and why. The fascinating results were revealed live on air and I could clearly see a variety of statistics that retailers should take heed of when thinking about their 2019 retail strategy.

The headline was, if the referendum was re-run, there would be a swing toward remain at 53 per cent to 47 per cent. In terms of the economic outlook, overall 44 per cent think Brexit will be bad for the economy, versus 31 per cent thinking it will be good. This overall national mood of ‘regrexit’ seems borne out by the current economic data. The Gfk consumer confidence index in the UK dropped to -10 in October 2018, as the Brexit impasse affected how consumers felt about the economy despite easing inflationary pressures. This deteriorating consumer confidence is being played out on the high street where we are seeing a continuing stream of store closures – not just because of Brexit, but certainly not helped by it.

In fact, hedge funds have amassed a £1.4bn bet against high streets with economists warning a crucial Christmas period will hinge on a pre- Christmas Brexit deal. The latest footfall data from Springboard shows a two per cent decline in October 2018, a steeper decline than September 2018. So, a clear picture, right? Well, not entirely. The detail of the Channel 4 programme helped to expose the far from unified picture of consumer intention. There appears to be a trend in voting by age group, which is imperative for retailers to note when thinking about their 2019 retail strategy as it’s linked to their financial independence.

To start with, a clear majority of voters aged 54+ would vote to leave again, the percent in favour of leave versus remain is almost identical in every age group upward. Interestingly for pensioners 75+ views are even more hardened with more now in favour of leaving.

In terms of the views of the economic outlook post-Brexit while 45-year-olds and younger now overwhelmingly have a negative view, for 55-64-year-olds it is much tighter. Over a third (34 per cent) think it will be good, versus 40 per cent bad and for 65-74-year-olds a majority think it will be positive, 42 per cent think it will be good, versus 35 per cent bad.

With regard to personal finances, a clear majority of consumers aged 54+ think Brexit will either be good or make no impact to their personal finances. There are two factors behind this; firstly, they are after all ‘Generation Wealth’, with more assets so therefore less likely to be directly impacted by any adverse effects. Additionally, as a majority wanted to vote ‘leave’ anyway, they were clearly unimpressed by what they see as ‘project fear’ from the remain side about some of the reported negative financial impacts.

However, for worried millennials a far different picture emerges. They are more in favour of the EU than ever before. Sixty-seven per cent of 25-34-year-olds would now vote remain, against 56 per cent who voted remain in 2016. Among this age group just 24 per cent think Brexit will be good for the economy versus 50 per cent bad. In terms of their personal financial situation, again the reverse of the older age groups is true. Fourty four per cent of 25-34-year-olds think it will be bad, against 18 per cent good, with 22 per cent thinking it will make no difference. This is perhaps not surprising when you consider they were firmly against Brexit from the start, are less secure in their jobs and have a hampered opportunity of working in Europe.

So what does this mean for retailers? As older consumers are more confident in our ability to forge ahead without EU membership, if a deal is settled, could we see the baby boomers create a mini-boom on the high street? Insulated from any of the more negative personal financial impact of Brexit and with more confidence in the country’s future and their own economic situation, could this lead them to spend more? This demographic is also far more likely to visit bricks and mortar stores. And for millennials worried about their personal financial security as well as the economy, retailers need to entice them to shop. Millennials seek out experiences, which also applies to the way they shop. Retailers need to engage with this audience through the customer journey, making any purchase a positive experience.

An understanding of these varying motivations, and the different demographics, their mindsets and their spending power, can make a big difference to retail strategy. Also, being agile, flexible and able to react quickly to the buying signals, especially in relation to pricing and promotion strategies for millennial audiences to try to entice them to spend, let alone spend more. Just as the outcome of the negotiation won’t satisfy all political parties or a now fractured population, neither will a one-size-fits-all retail strategy. Start planning now to remain relevant to your customer base as we move into 2019.

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Counting the cost of Brexit

The ERT Turning point Summit held in February touched on the many opportunities that face independent retail.

Like it or not, I refer to these as opportunities, as challenges paints a negative picture rather than an optimistic future in the most dynamic of industries – technology.

One area that we must remain optimistic about, as it’s a certainty, is Brexit and the impact this is having on trading even before Brexit has happened. By the time you read this, the Government will have triggered Article 50, starting the process of extricating the UK from the EU.

When the vote happened, there was much debate regarding the immediate impact in trading. In August, I wrote: “Any price increases will certainly not be absorbed by resellers, and will instead be passed on to the end user”. With the significant fall in sterling against the dollar (10 per cent) and euro (seven per cent), many brands chose to use this as reason to make trading that little bit more difficult for retail, in particular technology.
First to raise the average price of every product by 10 per cent was Dell, later followed by Apple who chose to increase prices by around 25 per cent again across every product, with a MacBook Pro jumping from £999 to £1,249. It wasn’t just hardware, however, as apps all increased from 79p to 99p and £7.99 to £9.99, all on the back of the Brexit vote and currency fluctuations.

Microsoft followed with an 11 per cent increase, and more recently Sonos, with what are now ‘old’ products, increased their pricing by 25 per cent across the entire range which took effect on February 23, taking a Play:1 from £169 to £199 and Play:5 from £429 to £499.

In the MDA category, although not a blanket price increase, many European brands, including Siemens and Indesit, are demanding payment in euros from distributors, pushing up retail prices due to a ‘trickle-down’ effect resulting from the increasingly unpredictable and unfavourable exchange rate.
These brands have something in common: they are category leaders and, to a certain extent, dictate the development of their respective categories through a rigid pricing structure and go-to-market plan. What they perhaps do not appreciate is that consumers aren’t stupid and can choose to opt for other brands with more appealing price points – an opportunity for emerging and established brands and retailers to explore.

The challenge for retail is how to up-skill your work force to continue selling the same products they’ve always sold successfully, but now at a higher price point. Sales teams will have to work harder to close a sale, and perhaps longer, but for no incremental benefit to you. Retailers don’t benefit in the same manner from what some may consider an arbitrary price increase, with only a slight or no increase in margin.

While many who voted ‘out ‘may have never considered that the costs of goods we import would go up, the reality is that it becomes a convenient rationale for many brands to apply an increase, blaming Brexit, and passing the cost on to consumers rather than absorbing this themselves. This is likely to be applied across every category.

Away from tech, others brands, such as Tesla and Lego, have both applied a five per cent increase, stating that this action was taken as “direct result of the continuing devaluing of the UK pound”. We saw what happened when Unilever tried to increase the cost of products such as Marmite by 12.5 per cent – the public made it known that they have a choice and they would choose to abandon a brand for a similar product. You need to have rather good brand equity to successfully manage price increases that impact on your loyal customers’ pockets.

Call it a ‘Brexit levy’ if you like, but let’s be realistic: it’s not going away. With Article 50 triggered, currency fluctuations could prove to be more negative and incur further price hikes. On the other hand, they could become positive, but if so I suspect we won’t see brands roll back price increases, instead retaining their increased pricing model to establish range pricing.

Whatever the outcome, market economics means retailers of all types must remain optimistic and have a clear vision of hope as they navigate the future. This includes pushing back on brands that make it harder to sell. Perhaps by introducing into your categories new or up-and-coming brands that could offer you more margin and your customers a better product at a reasonable price they are happy to pay.

 

Read more at: http://ertonline.co.uk/opinion/counting-the-cost-of-brexit/

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With 23 days to go until the EU Referendum, Gekko research has identified that a possible Brexit vote is not hindering shopper confidence

shopping centre banner

A new survey from Field Marketing agency Gekko has revealed that consumer confidence is stable in the face of stark warnings from both sides of the EU debate. Asking 2,000 UK shoppers whether they were worried about the threat of Brexit when making a purchase decision, the survey found that over half (51%) of consumers do not feel the need to put off making an important purchase until after the referendum result. This is especially relevant for older generations, with the survey finding that 60% of those 55 and over are confident in the state of the economy leading up to June 23rd. Thinking about the results of the referendum, a significant 73.5% of UK consumers stated that their decision to make an important purchase would not be affected by the result. In fact, only 6.4% of consumers felt a vote to leave would dissuade them from making a considered purchase such as a consumer electronics or domestic appliance product, which are rarely purchased on impulse.

The survey also found that, despite many brands coming out in favour of either side of the referendum, a high proportion (61.3%) of UK consumers feel that brands should stay out of politics all together, instead leaving the argument to the politicians. This is strong message for many big brands which have come out in favour of either side of the referendum, including Unilever, Ryan Air, EasyJet, HSBC and Marks & Spencer. However, these brands shouldn’t fear any consumer backlash from their stance – whilst the majority feel they shouldn’t get involved in politics, 49% don’t change their opinion of a brand depending on their stance, and only 21% have indicated that they have a negative opinion of brands that do not share their view. Most consumers will still buy a brand regardless of their political leanings.

Daniel Todaro, Managing Director Gekko Group, said: “what’s clear for brands is that consumers are currently very apathetic towards the possible economic impact of Brexit. Brands warning people against leaving the EU are failing to get the economic message across as 32% of consumers polled remain unsure or unaware of the impact of import tariffs being imposed post Brexit.”

“Looking at the high street, brands and retailers should not be putting off any product launches or promotions, as consumer confidence looks to remain high. However brands should avoid entering into political debate where they can. These results are good news for retailers who might have otherwise expected a dip in sales depending on the result.”

Read more at: http://fieldmarketing.com/news/gekkos-2000-shopper-survey-finds-brexit-vote-isnt-hindering-shopper-confidence/

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